The Government isn’t telling you the truth about the cost of renewables.
In estimates I asked the CSIRO about their costing forecast methods in regard to converting to renewable energy.
In 2017 the CSIRO said it would cost $1 trillion dollars to convert the energy grid to 100% renewables.
Then last year they claimed the costs had dropped by 50% or a lazy $500 billion despite rampart inflation. See link below. Upon questioning they then said costs had risen 20% or $100 billion.
If you tried this sort of numerical gymnastics on in the private sector you would be sacked.
Meanwhile Labor keeps saying that renewables are cheaper, yet our own science agency can’t even maintain a consistent forecast.
Renewables are going to end up sending the country broke.
More at: https://alumni.csiro.au/technological-innovation-will-drive-change-in-australias-energy-system
Economics Legislation Committee
16/02/2023
Estimates
INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES PORTFOLIO
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Senator RENNICK: Hi, guys, how are you going?
Dr Marshall: Well, thanks, and you?
Senator RENNICK: Good, thanks. I want to refer to a publication or a figure released by—I’m not sure if Paul Graham still works at the CSIRO or not, but he was the CSIRO’s chief energy economist back in 2017, and he said that it would cost Australia $500 billion to convert Australia to renewables. Given that we want to get to 82 per cent—or the Labor Party wants to get to 82 per cent—by 2030, do you still stand by those figures or have they increased since 2017?
Dr Mayfield: Maybe I’ll start off. I think the work you’re referring there to is the work with ENA, Energy Networks Australia, and the Network Transformation Roadmap.
Senator RENNICK: ‘Technological innovation will drive change in Australia’s energy system’ by ECOS.
Dr Mayfield : Oh, it’s different. We’ve done a few iterations of that.
Senator RENNICK: Yes, I’m sure you have.
Dr Mayfield : In terms of that question, Mr Graham is present tonight, so I can invite him to the table if you’d like to talk to him.
Senator RENNICK: Yes, that would be great. How are you going, Mr Graham?
Mr Graham: Good, thanks. Over the years, a number of different organisations have asked us to look at the total investment cost for transforming the energy sector, usually towards some sort of low-emissions state, by 2050. What we find each time we do it, and we do it with the best of knowledge at the time, is that it tends to get a bit cheaper, that number, over time. When we would have done that work in 2017, we were still probably underestimating the amount of cost reductions that were available to technologies like solar, wind and so forth. When we redo those numbers now, we might get a lower number.
Senator RENNICK: What’s your number, or what do you estimate?
Mr Graham: We haven’t published one in a while. Actually, the bigger problem we run into now is that we have so many scenarios that have, potentially, a hydrogen export sector that the number might have gone up in the respect that we’re trying to build new industries out of more electricity generation, which means that sector gets bigger, sometimes twice as big as we might have expected in 2017. The number moves around depending on what you’re saying is happening to the future of electricity-using industries—
Senator RENNICK: It happens a lot in renewables. I note today that Wesfarmers said they had a cost blowout with their lithium mining, so I find that comment that costs are coming down interesting, because lithium mining costs are going up, and that’s a large part of storage, as you know.
Mr Graham: We just published the latest GenCost and we found that, on average, the cost of most technologies has gone up 20 per cent in the last year, so we’ve recognised that too.
Senator RENNICK: Costs have gone up by 20 per cent?
Mr Graham: On average—some technologies by more.
Senator RENNICK: Was that all renewables, or just with regard to batteries?
Mr Graham: Across both generation and storage technologies. Batteries were one of the technologies that had gone up higher than 20 per cent.
Senator RENNICK: That’s quite the rate of inflation. Is $500 billion still a ballpark figure, or a trillion or—?
Mr Graham: It’s still a ballpark figure, yes.
Senator RENNICK: Five hundred billion—thanks. That’s all I need to know for that one.
Dr Mayfield: I think it’s important that you define the scenario that you’re costing.
Senator RENNICK: It’s modelling; I get it.
Dr Mayfield: If you don’t define that well enough, the number can be very—
Senator RENNICK: I think the chief executive and I have a very similar opinion when it comes to modelling. We’ll just leave that one at that.
