The energy department said in estimates that Australia needs 100GW of renewable energy to reach its 2030 renewable energy target.
Yet it’s almost 2024 and Chris Bowen the energy minister has to stump up an estimated billions just to get another 23GW of renewables into the grid. (Batteries are storage not generation.)
Furthermore, just as the bureaucrats in the energy department can’t tell us if they are on target in reaching their renewable energy goals Chris Bowen won’t tell us how much it’s going to cost to underwrite renewables.
Australians are being taken for a ride.
“Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s expanded green energy underwriting scheme could end up costing future taxpayers “tens of billions” of dollars, says a top energy economist who predicts $59 billion in new solar, wind and batteries will eventually erode earnings from renewable power.
“The bulk of the cost of this investment is ultimately going to lie on the public purse,” Bruce Mountain told AFR Weekend. “And it would be entirely reasonable that the government gets back some or all of that from electricity customers in due course.”
The cost of Labor’s freshly minted Capacity Investment Scheme is being hotly debated by energy experts, with most agreeing the Commonwealth faces a material financial exposure, as well as concerns about the government’s refusal to reveal costings.
Labor cited confidentiality reasons for withholding the Commonwealth’s potential liability under the capacity scheme, which was backed by state and territory energy ministers in Perth on Friday.
The scheme, announced on Thursday, will involve a series of six-monthly blind auctions between the June quarter and 2027 to underwrite 18 gigawatts of new wind power, 5 gigawatts of solar and 9 gigawatts of battery storage.”
Quote from: afr.com
Chamber: Senate on 23/10/2023
Estimates: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water
Senator RENNICK: I would like to quote an expert group, the Net Zero Australia group, which is led by Robin Batterham, Australia’s former chief scientist and a leading professor of engineering. He seems to think it will cost $1.5 trillion by the end of the decade to meet Australia’s 2050 green targets. He goes on to say that only 50 gigawatts have been planned and an estimated 230 gigawatts are needed. Is the Albanese Labor government on track to meet its 82 per cent of renewables by 2030 and net zero by 2050? If so, what is the estimated cost to do that?
Mr Duggan : In response to an earlier question I said that we are advising the government on options for securing the pathway to 82 per cent renewable energy, which, as you point out, is critical to achieving the 43 per cent legislated emissions reduction target.
Senator RENNICK: Are you on track? Are you going to get there—yes or no?
Mr Duggan : We would expect to see an acceleration towards that target in the second half of the decade for a variety of reasons. One I mentioned earlier is we are only now starting to see some of the significant policies the government put in place starting to now hit on the ground and have an impact on investment. The second reason is that, as we get more renewables into the system, we will see costs being driven down, and we are also seeing our coal-fired power generators getting close to the end of their productive life. As the older assets naturally retire from the system, you would expect to see mathematically and economically an uplift in the renewable penetration, so we certainly think that there is a pathway to 82 per cent.
Sena tor RENNICK: Do you agree with the statement that you only have 50 gigawatts planned and that you need to get up to 230 gigawatts to reach your targets?
Mr Duggan : I might defer to my colleague.
Senator RENNICK: Let me ask a more specific question: what percentage of energy developments have you actually got planned and confirmed out of the 100 per cent that you need to get to 82 per cent by 2030 and net zero by 2050?
Mr Duggan : The best source of information on this is AEMO’s Integrated System Plan and their step change scenario. When it looks at NEM generation capacity, by 2030-31 total renewable capacity—and this is in gigawatts—it estimates to be 111 gigawatts, with the total capacity being 129, and the difference there being a non-renewable capacity of 18. That includes remaining black and brown coal but also some gas remaining in the system at that point.
Senator RENNICK: So you’re saying that you’ve got 100 planned of the 123 already lock and loaded?
Mr Duggan : That is the Integrated System Plan. That is the best least-cost pathway effectively to 2030-31 according to AEMO.
Senator RENNICK: Could you provide on notice a list of all those projects so I can look at them?
Mr Duggan : We can certainly provide you with a link through to the AEMO Integrated System Plan, which details all of the projects.
